Recently a prominent Chinese activist has demanded a name list from the Chinese government of the children killed in the Sichuan earthquake. This demand will presumably be increased to include the names of all 90,000 victims in order to work out exactly how many of the dead were children.
Personally, I don’t think he would be successful. I have never known of any governments in the world that have released name lists of catastrophies that have resulted in deaths of that magnitude. I don’t think China would be any different.
Most likely, this effort, no matter how well the original intention is, would just turn out to be yet another prolonged confrontation destined to stir up further unrests and even more hardship for the parents in the future. Given that is the case, I believe it is worthwhile trying to assess objectively whether this is the best way forward for the victims, their family and everyone else.
To do that, we need to understand the motivation behind the demand, and the facts surrounding the events, in order to correctly assess the situation and address the underlying issues.
The first question we need to ask is why the need to know exactly how many children died from the quake. Why the need to single out one particular attribute of the dead? In other words, why is no-one just as desperate to find out the sex or ethnicity, or any other attribute of the dead. There has to be a reason for such firm determination to know the age.
If you have been following the news, then the answer should be quite obvious. There is this wide spread belief that the school collapses were a result of shoddy workmanship caused by corrupt government officials. Therefore an exact count of the number of children killed is believed by many to provide incriminating “evidence” against the authorities.
The root of the suspicion is the fact that while some buildings did not collapse, most of the schools in the area did. But is that evidence of shoddy workmanship, let alone “evidence” of corruption? In order to find out, we need to explore some facts.
————————————————————–
Facts :
So let’s consider some facts.
1) The power of the Sichuan quake was aprox. 251 times that of the recent Italian L’Aquila earthquake.
2) It rocked for 3 minutes instead of seconds as was in the Italian quake.
3) The energy released was equivalent to almost 560 atom bombs of the grade used in the WW2
4) It is the world’s 19th deadliest earthquake of all time.
The recent L’Aquila quake in Italy flattened or severely damaged most of the buildings in the area. Imagine what would happen if you increase that 251 times while also increasing the duration to 3 minutes. It is hard to imagine any buildings left standing. Perhaps a better question is NOT why so many schools collapsed, but why some schools did not collapse.
Despite the fact that Italy is a wealthy first world European country, there are those who seem to think that it is somehow not good enough to be used as a comparison to tiny remote villages in China. To satisfy those people, let’s have a look at another even more wealthy and powerful country. The economic superpower of the 1980s, Japan.
The 1995 Kobe earthquake measuring 6.8 on the Moment Magnitude Scale completely devastated the city of Kobe. Within 20 seconds, the massive quake collapsed 200,000 buildings, 1 km of the Hanshin Expressway, and 120 of the 150 quays in the port of Kobe.
Yet, the Sichuan quake is almost 45 times the strength of the Kobe quake, and lasted for approximately 9 times the duration. Imagine what would happen to the city of Kobe if you increase the quake 45 times and the duration 9 times.
Wealthy Japan is no stranger to earthquakes. Indeed, it is well known for having plenty of earthquakes on a regular basis. Buildings are built to a very high standard. There is no reason why it cannot be used as a comparison to a remote village in a developing country such as China.
———————————————————-
Conclusions :
It is clear from the comparisons above that the collapse of the scools in remote villages should not be a surprise to anyone. They do not in any way prove poor quality construction. The question instead should be how did some Chinese schools survive the world’s 19th deadliest earthquake of all time.
While I of course don’t object to the idea of finding out if your child survived the quake, I do think it is quite pointless confronting the authorities simply to find out if they know the name of your deceased child. After all, it isn’t like the parents do not know the names of their dead children. And there is no reason why they so desparately need to know the names of someone else’s dead children.
Perhaps there is a need for everyone to calm down. Perhaps there is a need for everyone to reflect on whether this is the best way forward for the victims and their family, and indeed for the nation.
Imagine for a moment that, if the people involved were less ready to blame the government ; that if the internet was not filled with nasty allegations all pointing the same direction ; that if the different interest groups (both within and outside China) did not stir the emotions of the people to fuel this allegation. The situation would surely be much less potentially explosive.
The numbers would then not serve any purpose other than as statistics. In that case, it would be hard to imagine why the authorities would not be willing to share the statistics with you. And everyone can then concentrate their efforts on rehabilitation and improving their livelihoods. There is no reason why this is not achievable. In my opinion, this is the correct way forward.
———————————————————-
Sources :
Sources for the calculations used above are based on information extracted from the following websites:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moment_magnitude_scale
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/faq.php?categoryID=2&faqID=33
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_L%27Aquila_earthquake
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kobe_earthquake#Damage
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Sichuan_earthquake
like your article.
interesting and informative.
well done chan!!!
Good to see facts laid out like this. Good work Chan.
There are now 58000-plus names on The Vietnam Wall Memorial in Washington, DC
http://www.footnote.com/thewall
Chan
I like that you questioned that more work should be done to find out why those school buildings survived instead of wasting time wondering why so many school buildings had collapsed. Most people don’t think like that. Hmm, very intersting. Good thinking.
At the first anniversary, I would like to know if and how much people have been helped by all the public donations and government relief funds. Are the Sichuan people happy with the relief and reconstruction work one year on or they are disappointed and why? Most of the time, the Western media is too biased and the Chinese media, for one reason or another, don’t tell us enough of what’s exactly going on. Very hard to find the truth.
Thanks everyone for your comments and compliments. Much appreciated.
—————————————-
.
Chen,
Thanks for the info.
To understand and properly evaluate an action (or inaction), we need to understand the motivation behind the action.
The Vietnam Wall Memorial commemorates fallen soldiers who lost their lives on duty serving their country. It is only normal and decent for their fellow countrymen to do whatever is appropriate to commemorate them. In this case, listing their names on a wall.
If those names or numbers were instead collected and used as a political weapon against the government, then you willl find that things would be very different. In some Western countries, even the mere showing of coffins of fallen soldiers on TV as they arrive on home soil from battles would be prohibited. The reason is those images would easily be used as a polical weapon against the government.
As I mentioned in the article, if only we are willing to consider all the facts and look at the numbers purely as statistics, there is no reason whatsoever the authorities would hesitate to release those numbers.
Venteia,
Thanks for your compliments. And good to see you on my blog!!
Yes, I agree with you. Sometimes it’s a bit hard to find out all the facts. But judging from the unimaginablly mindboggling speed the Chinese government was able to restore everything in the last massive snow storm which crippled much of the huge country, it’s a bit hard to imagine there can be another government in the world that is more efficient when it comes to disaster relieve.
This of course doesn’t mean the people willl be happy. But I am sure they would be happiER if they are willing to move on and rebuild their lives.
( I am hoping someone can help me translate this article into Chinese. I would love to invite our mainland Chinese friends to this blog. By the way, I am wondering why the other Telegraph bloggers haven’t yet followed you to my site. Thanks for coming Venetia. )
even i’m from former communist country i always wonder why someone (generaly) is ready to accept the truth is something you must protect people against it because they too stupid deal with it alone
problems are multiplied when someone labels it like attact against country, in longer term this can bring more explosive cases
if there is problem with this kind of information (personal data protection?) than authorities have name reasons clearly according to present law and not persue persons asked for it or creating it
if there is no such problem in ‘west country’ you can demand it, even in last step using trial against goverment, because there is right for information declared – even maybe you will not win way you wanted always you can
You have made goods points in this article and I do agree with most of the things you have said. Although, surely you must know that the building WERE actually poorly constructed?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ye_Zhiping
This is what I was talking about in my previous comment.
Hi “Real Name”
Thanks for your comments.
Please understand that it is NOT the purpose of this article to protect the Chinese government. I am not saying there are no buildings with poor workmanship. And I am certainly not saying there is no corruption in China.
The purpose of this blogsite is to provide alternate views (as suggested in the blogsite heading) that you would probably not get from the media. And the purpose of this particular article is to point out the fact that the collapse of buildings by itself should not automatically be viewed as “evidence” of corruption. Such presumption of guilt would not only not help, but in fact make things even worse than it is already.
You are of course free to disagree with me. But I hope I have provided you with information worth pondering about.
hi chan
ad “it is NOT the purpose”: that’s why i put “(generaly)” after “someone”
in some things i can agree with you, in some can’t, usualy i express in second cases
why worse? investigate it and can find how it is really and that could help you avoid it if possible
(btw. could you compare also power of japan earthquake about one month after sechuan?)unfortunately offcials like to deal with people way they easy to understand it is hiding of corruption
one of the reasons is also they already started with this style
Real Name,
No problems. I understand your stance.
But could you explain your question again? I don’t quite understand the question.
Jenni,
Thanks for your comments, and I am happy that you agree with my points.
Yes, I have no doubt there are plenty of buildings in all developing countries that are poorly constructed. China would not be different. However we need to put the whole thing into perspective, and this is what this article is for.
I hope that through this article we can have a fuller picture, and through these discussions we can all gain deeper understanding of the problem.
ad But could you explain your question again?
can you explain how much stronger was sechuan comparing to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Iwate-Miyagi_Nairiku_earthquake
Real Name,
According to the Wikipaedia, the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake was a magnitude 6.9 quake on the Moment Magnitude Scale. That would mean that the Sichuan quake was more than 31 times the strength of that quake.
Hope that helped.
I have lived in Chengdu off and on the past 4 years and was actually there during the SiChuan earthquake (certainly the longest 3 minutes of my life – I litterally expected to die).
I have a small karaoke business in Chengdu in partnership with a local, while maintaining my businesses here in America.
I have witnessed first-hand the private and government relief efforts. After the quake, China came together like it never had before to raise money for relief. The government, led by Premier Wen Jiabao personally, was immediately on the scene, and for much more than a simple photo op – he was there for days. Again, I witnessed all this in real-time.
China has only been on this “opening road” of its govenment since Mao’s death in 1979. That’s a scant 40 years. We in America need to keep the reporting on China in context as they CONTINUE on a road of opening up, while STILL dealing with 100’s of millions of Chinese that were educated under Mao that only the govenment can do ANYTHING. China is about balance and measured progress.
I will attempt to open some closed minds about China with this simple entreaty – VISIT CHINA! Don’t take anyone’s word for what is or isn’t happening. Visa’s are easy to obtain, and travel is unrestricted. Chengdu has even recently opened up high-speed rail service directly with Tibet.
Travel to the earthquake-striken areas is also easy from Chengdu (besides, both main world Panda reserves are in the Chengdu, and you definately want to visit).
I want to personally thank Chan for this wonderful and all-to-needed site as well.
Hello Michael McCroskey,
Thanks very much for the comments and your compliments.
I like to start a new post on this blogsite to showcase interesting thoughts from people such as yourself who have first hand experience of China, and whose views don’t conform to the mainstream media.
I am hoping to do this in the coming week. If you don’t mind Michael, I will highlight on that post a few of your very wise and interesting comments from other blogs. Of course under your own name. May I have your permission to do that? I am happy to send it to you for review before publishing.
ad led by Premier Wen Jiabao personally
in fact i remember how i was angry see him calling hallo to ruins when in the same time china refused well trained life-saving dogs also from my country because they do not know local language
No, “Real Name”,
Premier Wen was not there to “say hello”. He was there (within 24hrs) to see the disaster first hand, to help direct the rescue effort, and to unite the nation.
His presence there was welcomed and deeply appreciated by the locals. It provided enormous encouragement to the rescue team and raised the spirit of the nation.
As for the life-saving dogs, I doubt it is to do with language. Perhaps someone else can explain it for you.
ad language
another excuse was difficult situation in area (what else do you expect after earthquake? btw. own premier was not in danger than?)
just after few days (= when was already clear there are 10s-thousands of victims) enabled some selected foreigners to come
unfortunately people under ruins need fast help, in another similar cases rescuers entering plane in few hours
Chan,
I always stand behind anything I write 100% – you always have my permission to repost and quote as you see fit.
As to the comments on Wen Jiabao, you couldn’t be more unfair “real name.”
I was there, I (and everyone else there including Premier Wen) was experiencing the 100s of after-shocks that happened (some above 6.0) for weeks after the main quake. Some people slept in the streets for weeks after the quake out of sheer fear. NO ONE in that area felt safe for months.
Wen Jiabao was a hero of a leader in my book, pure and simple. He didn’t fly in for a “photo opportunity” weeks after the fact, he was in there for DAYS within 48 hours of the main quake. He really was an inspiration, and that’s the simple truth of it – if nothing else he inspired the hell out of me!
There was such chaos right after the quake, as recovery efforts were organized. I guess people think it is no big thing to coordinate the search for 100s of thousands of missing and dead.
Is it so unreasonable that foreigners that couldn’t speak a bit of Mandarin would be initially held back from the main quake area as coordination efforts were organized?
I do know there were search dogs on the scene from some source within 48 hours, I watched them on television from Chengdu.
China handled one of our centuries biggest natural disasters with extreme (and from my viewpoint quite unbelievable) grace, compassion and effectiveness. It sure did contrast to what I saw of the Katrina response here in the US.
Credit due is credit due and fair is fair, I don’t care what form of government is in charge.
i do not think i made any comment against wen (and if i remember well in that time were comments against smiling local official behind him only)
no doubt chinese effort was great and much better organized than in ’76
just f.e. in case of earthquake in iran 2003 our rescue team was asked! to come nearly immediately and came sooner than 48 ours after tragedy, in sechuan case it took 4-5 days were some! selected foreign offers accepted
but surely i do not want to hide act of public calling to ruins i personaly do not like at all
Michael,
Thank you very much for your comment and your permission to re-post your other comments. Very much appreciated!
————————
“Real Name”,
I believe Michael McCroskey has responded to your comments very well.
If you haven’t already done so, I would highly recommend you go to China, and see the place for yourself.
( By the way Real Name, I just wrote a follow-on article that may answer some of your questions that you haven’t yet raised. Just click on the tab on top of this page )
believe or not i was really angry
i’ve already been in china few times, unfortunately my plan visit sechuan failed
(thanks, for me main question is when people will live in houses again, official plan is next year autumn, hope than that you ready to see like political problem could change)
“Real Name”,
If you’ve seen the incredible speed the Chinese government was able to restore everything in the last massive snow storm which crippled much of the huge country, you will probably agree that there is no other government on this planet that is more efficient when it comes to disaster relieve.
I can’t tell you when people will live in houses again, but I can tell you they will live in houses much earlier than if they were in other countries. Please do let me know if you can think of any other country that is more efficient.
do not know why you asking me
i already expressed i see progress in china
can say also olympics was better organized in china than f.e. in usa
btw. restore everything
in that time was published estimation of 9% chinese forest will be lost because of snow
don’t you know any updated number?
Ok “Real Name”.
I was talking about infrastructures and people’s livelihood.
Forests don’t come any sooner than nature allows.
I don’t disagree with most of your points, so I’ll only point out that many of the buildings right next to the schools were still standing after the quake, whereas many school buildings collapsed.
If the quality of all the buildings was the same, why did only the school buildings collapse? If the quality wasn’t the same, then why was the quality of the school buildings worse that those surrounding them?
Little Alex,
Thanks for coming here to comment.
I already answered that question in my next article which you can read by clicking on the “Follow-on Article” tab located at the top of the page.
——————————
But since publishing of that follow-on article, I understand that there were some investigations from experts in HK. I don’t know how thorough the investigation was. But the result of that investigation does point to poor workmanship. In that case I do agree that we need to find out the root cause. But I still object to making conclusions before we establishing all the facts.
Have a read of the follow-on article 1st. You are welcomed to give further feedback.
Little Alex,
My above response post was posted before this site was revamped.
In this new set up, instead of clicking on the “Follow-on Article” tab at the top of the page, you can now access the article from the Home page (or the “Articles” page)
Hi, Chan,
Nice blog! I am wondering if you are willing to consider to join us at Fool’s Mountain, collaborative effort amongst writers focused on Chinese issues. You may read more info about us here (http://blog.foolsmountain.com/about/). Thank you very much.
Hi CLC,
Thank you very much for your compliment. And thank you for your invitation.
I only had a chance to look around your site very quickly. It looks like a very interesting and informative site. I shall definitely check it out again tomorrow.
I would be much more than happy to join you on your site. The only problem (and very serious one) is the next article I was going to write (ie, part 2 on my Democracy series) was to be my last article for the foreseeable future.
But you are welcome to re-post all my articles on your site under my alias of Chan. And I will respond to any feedback from the readers on your site the same way I do it here. In fact, that may work out very well for me too because I was informed that people in China cannot access the WordPress site, and therefore cannot read my articles.
Hi, Chan,
That’s great! If you have time, please check out our “featured posts” on the sidebar.
FM is a collaborative blog. It is up to individual contributors to post frequently, rarely, or not at all. It is alright that you only post one article.
In the past year, I have seen quite a few good China related sites “come and go.” It it hard for a single individual to keep up the task of maintaining and updating a blog year around.
To post on FM, please sign up for an account at
http://blog.foolsmountain.com/wp-login.php?action=register and notify me via an email so I can change your status as author.
Mmm but not all the schools that collapsed were under a 7.9 magnitude. Magnitude decreases as you are far away from the epicenter, that’s also a fact.
Second, how many schools collapsed in Kobe?Good to look for.
third: Why did schools collapsed and government buildings dis not? That a building is broken after an earthquake that’s normal. That they collapsed (especially schools, hospitals…) as they did in Sichuan is something to think about.
I still remember the blog of a guy who went there to build schools. He suffered a lot tio have the schools out of the corruption and money pocketing officials, stoping construction many times. He said thiose years there made him old and grey-haired. ASfter the quake he realized his effort. None of the schools he oversaw while being built (4 or 5) collapsed. Some of them were unusabel after the quake, or needed extensive repairs, but none was a death trap. That’s something we need to address and ask our officials to shed responsibility about.
Off the topic, I remember seeing a charred dead body of PLA hung by a light post on June 4, 1989 before formal decision by Deng to use force to clean up Tienanmen square. Can you help me to locate the photo?
Sing666,
Thanks for visiting. I am sorry, I’ve never heard of this before. Sounds like rumour to me.
Chan:
Here is the link to time.com June 12, 1989. It clearly stated that PLA soldiers were trapped in a burning APC, set on fire by rioters before the main assault was ordered.
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,957917-2,00.html
I remembered seeing the picture on one of US magazines in later day . However, after so many years, I would not locate it. This is not rumor I heard over the grapevine.
Sing666,
Thanks very much for the info. I guess we learn something new everyday.
I happen to belong to the camp that firmly believes that had Deng Xiaoping not do what he did, China would have broken up and gone into civil war. One thousand dead although very sad, is nothing compared to millions of dead and tens of millions homeless.
That’s just my personal opinion. But I am not alone.
( Anyway, this is NOT the topic of our discussion )
Chan,
You provides an interesting perspective on the collapse of the school buildings. Your argument holds fairly well with regard to the “expected” davastations caused by the powerful Sichuan earthquake. It is indeed logical, unfortunately, to expect the collapse of many school buildings (and other buildings) after such a davastating earthquake. However, I think that there is a missing part in your argument. You need to show that the proportion of collapsed school buildings is not significantly higher than the proportion of collapsed non-school buildings of similar structure. If the above can be proved with concrete evidence, at least, we can say that the schools in the quake zone were not particularly prone to poor quality construction, possibly as a result of corruption.
Hehe,
Thanks a lot for your comment.
You have made a very good valid point. I totally agree with you. The problem for me is I don’t have the relevant info to present such a case.
Nevertheless, it was still well worth my effort to contribute with the info that I do have. I am glad you like this alternate perspective.
Chan,
I think that the government actually has the responsibility to show statistical evidence on the collapsed building in the quake zone. It is reasonable to believe that the government has the data.
Yes sure, I am sure they can collect the data if they don’t already have it. I don’t know if they have already released that data or not.
Assuming they haven’t already done so, I doubt if they would release the data if it would then add to the argument on the other side.
In that case, you may want to complain, and perhaps rightly so. But from perspective, as long as there are anti-China groups wanting to join in the “game” to foster another Tiananmen color revolution, I can’t imagine myself switching sides. The merits simply don’t outweight the risk.
Hi all,
I’ve just published a 2nd follow-on article to the main Sichuan Quake article on the Fools Mountain website.
I am considering adding that to this site as well. But in the mean time, feel free to check it out. (Just click on the link above)
—————————-
Hehe,
I guess my response to your previous comment may not have been satisfactory to yourself. But my latest article on the above mentioned site should shed some light on why our opinions differ. Please see if it adds any value in reducing the differences of our opinions.